Home Policy applications EU National Emission Ceilings
Bilateral consultations with Member States on the baseline scenario for the revision of the Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution PDF Print E-mail

To support the European Commission in the review of the Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution, IIASA is working on the baseline scenario that will serve for more in-depth analyses of policy options and their related impacts. The baseline scenario(s) are planned to be ready by the end of 2012.

Member States are invited to participate in bilateral consultations with IIASA on input data used for the preparation of the baseline. The baseline will use the final EC4MACS scenario, which builds on the PRIMES Reference 2010 energy projections and CAPRI agricultural projections. The purpose of the consultations is to improve emissions assessment in the scenario, but not to modify assumptions of the PRIMES/CAPRI scenarios. Countries will have the possibility to provide national activity scenarios, although it will be decided at a later stage how these national scenarios will be used for the analyses. National scenarios will need to be provided in the GAINS format (GAINS templates).

To facilitate discussion and review, IIASA will make all relevant data for the GAINS model (its recent version) and documentation of the EC4MACS final assessment available on the Internet. We are presently finalizing the work on the technicalities and will inform you in due course on how to access the most recent data.
Read more...
 
Review of the NEC Directive PDF Print E-mail

The EU Commission's review of its National Emissions Ceilings (NEC) Directive is being undertaken to safeguard the achievement of the environmental objectives laid down in the Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution. The revision aims to add ceilings for particulate matter for the period from 2020 onwards whilst updating the national ceilings for other air pollutants. The work is part of the comprehensive review of the EU Air Quality Strategy.

The GAINS model has been applied as the central analytical tool to explore quantitive emission ceilings that meet the environmental objectives in a cost-effective way.

Latest developments:

  • July 2011. NEC Scenario Analysis Report #8 updates the emission scenarios to reach environmental objectives of the Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution based on the updated national and Primes scenarios used in the negotiations of the Gothenburg Protocol under the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution. Download report.
  • August 2010. NEC Scenario Analysis Report #7 explored how national emission ceilings could look that meet the environmental targets of the Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution, taking into account the most recent policy decisions. Download report.
 
PRIMES energy scenarios released PDF Print E-mail

As of November 2010, energy scenarios developed with the PRIMES model are accessible at the GAINS-Europe online version.

The following scenarios are now available:

  • The PRIMES 2009 Baseline projection (as of December 2009), used for the EC4MACS Interim Assessment
  • The PRIMES 2010 Reference projection (as of April 2010), used for the NEC7 report
  • The national energy projections submitted by countries for the revision of the Gothenburg Protocol.
These scenarios can be accessed in the GAINS on-line version via different scenario groups.
 
The revision of the EU Directive on National Emission Ceilings PDF Print E-mail

As a follow-up to the CAFE (Clean Air For Europe) programme, the European Commission proposed in its Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution to revise its directive on National Emission Ceilings to safeguard the achievement of the environmental objectives laid down in the Thematic Strategy. The GAINS model has been applied as the central analytical tool to explore quantitive emission ceilings that meet these environmental objectives in a cost-effective way.

Recent developments:

In June 2008 the European Commission decided to revise the National Emission Ceilings Directive at a later and considered more appropriate moment, taking into account the possibility that the European institutions will agree on the Climate and Energy Package by the end of 2008. NEC Report #6 (National Emission Ceilings for 2020 based on the 2008 Climate & Energy Package) analyzes a range of scenarios that meet the environmental objectives of the Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution for energy projections that are compatible with the Climate and Energy Package. (Download report and underlying data)

Earlier steps:

The analytical process for the establishment of national emission ceilings follows a step-wise approach:

  • As preparatory steps, input data of the GAINS model have been reviewed by stakeholders from Member States and industry in an extensive series of bilateral consultations with IIASA. A scientific review of the GAINS model took place in 2007.
  • The GAINS model has been applied to develop the NEC baseline projections for future emissions and air quality impacts, as they are likely to emerge as a consequence of current economic trends and the implementation of already agreed air quality legislation. Three baseline projections have been presented to the stakeholders in September 2007 and are documented in the NEC Scenario Analysis Report #1: Baseline scenarios for the revision of the NEC Emission Ceilings Directive. September 2006. Download.
  • A first round of optimization analyses explored emission control scenarios that meet the environmental objectives of the Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution. These scenarios have been discussed with the stakeholders in the EU working group on National Emission Ceilings and Policy Instruments (NECPI) in December 2006, and are documented in the NEC Scenario Analysis Report #2: Emission control scenarios that meet the environmental objectives of the Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution. December 2006. Download.
  • Following further comments from stakeholders, in March 2007 a third round of model analyses explored the translation of the environmental objectives given in the Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution into quantitative targets for the NEC analysis. NEC Scenario Analysis Report #3: Cost-optimized reductions of air pollutant emissions in the EU Member States to meet the environmental targets of the Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution. Download.
  • For June 2007, IIASA updated the national activity projections with recent information received from Member States and compared them with illustrative projections that explore the potential impacts of a more ambitious climate policy. The reports demonstrated that future air pollution will be strongly influenced by decisions on climate policy, and that cost-optimized emission ceilings will crucially depend on the exact implementation of climate measures. (NEC Scenario Analysis Report #4: Updated Baseline Projections for the Revision of the Emission Ceilings Directive of the European Union . June 2007. Download.
  • NEC Scenario Analysis Report #5: Cost-effective Emission Reductions to meet the Environmental Targets of the Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution under Different Greenhouse Gas Constraints. June 2007. Download.
  • In June 2008 it became clear that the European Commission will decide on the revision of the National Emission Ceilings Directive at a later and considered more appropriate moment, taking into account the possibility that the European institutions will agree on the Climate and Energy Package by the end of 2008. NEC Report #6 (National Emission Ceilings for 2020 based on the 2008 Climate & Energy Package) analyzes a range of scenarios that meet the environmental objectives of the Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution for energy projections that are compatible with the Climate and Energy Package. (Download report and underlying data).

All input data for the GAINS analysis and all results of the baseline and policy scenarios are available from the GAINS-online version.
 


International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) * Schlossplatz 1 * A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Phone: (+43 2236) 807 0 * Fax: (+43 2236) 71 313 * Web: www.iiasa.ac.at
Copyright © 2012 IIASA * Disclaimer