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Mitigating climate change and improving health and food security PDF Print E-mail
Shindell_Science_Jan_2012

The GAINS model has been used to identify emission reduction strategies for methane and black carbon that mitigate near-term climate change and are simultaneously beneficial to human health. The research, involving NASA, SEI, and others, and published in Science (Jan 13) identifies 14 measures that could reduce warming by ~0.5°C by 2050 and avoid up to 4.7 million premature deaths annually.

Simultaneously Mitigating Near-Term Climate Change and Improving Human Health and Food Security.
Drew Shindell, et al.
Science 335, 183 (2012);
DOI: 10.1126/science.1210026

 
GAINS model methodology PDF Print E-mail

A full description of the current GAINS integrated assessment framework has been published (December 2011):

  • Amann M, Bertok I, Borken-Kleefeld J, Cofala J, Heyes C, Höglund-Isaksson L, Klimont Z, Nguyen B, Posch M, Rafaj P, Sandler R, Schöpp W, Wagner F, Winiwarter W. (2011)
    Cost-effective control of air quality and greenhouse gases in Europe: Modeling and policy applications.
    Environmental Modelling & Software, 26(12):1489-1501 (December 2011) (Published online 15 September 2011) [doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2011.07.012]

This paper describes the methodological approach of the GAINS model and its components. It presents a recent policy analysis that explores the likely future development of emissions and air quality in Europe in the absence of further policy measures, and assesses the potential and costs for further environmental improvements. To inform the forthcoming negotiations on the revision of the Gothenburg Protocol of the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution, the paper discusses the implications of alternative formulations of environmental policy targets on a cost-effective allocation of further mitigation measures.

 
CIAM Report 5/2011 PDF Print E-mail

A new CIAM report presents estimates of the ammonia emission reductions and costs of the measures included in the Draft Annex IX prepared by the Task Force on Reactive Nitrogen (TFRN) for the revision of the Gothenburg Protocol. The estimates for the three different ambition levels have been derived with the GAINS model, assuming that these measures are implemented equally in all countries irrespective of their cost‐effectiveness. Download report ...

 
Young Scientists Summer Program 2012 PDF Print E-mail

IIASA’s annual 3-month Young Scientists Summer Program (YSSP) offers research opportunities to talented young researchers whose interests correspond with IIASA’s ongoing research. From June through August accepted participants work within the Institute’s Research Programs under the guidance of IIASA scientific staff.

The application period for the 2012 YSSP has now opened (October 3, 2011), and runs until January 16, 2012. Further details about the YSSP and information on submitting an application are available at IIASA's YSSP web pages.

Additional information about YSSP research within the MAG Program can be found on this web site, together with a list of potential research topics. This list, however, is not intended to be exhaustive, and original research ideas are also welcomed.

 
CIAM Report 4/2011 PDF Print E-mail

IIASA has prepared a background report for the 49th meeting of the Working Group on Strategies and Review (Geneva, September 12-15, 2011) to inform negotiations on the revision of the Gothenburg Protocol about the scope for further environmental improvements. This report presents revised emission control scenarios that would achieve the environmental targets laid out in the earlier CIAM 1/2011 report, taking into account the latest updated information on national emission inventories and projections provided by Parties to the Convention on Long‐range Transboundary Air Pollution. Download report ...

Updated data sheets with details of country-specific measures are available.

Following the WGSR meeting the chair of the Task Force on Integrated Assessment Modelling has prepared tables giving emission reduction percentages for all ambition options on the basis of the emission data in CIAM report 4/2011.

 
CIAM Report 2/2011 PDF Print E-mail

A background paper prepared for the 14th meeting of the UNECE Task Force on Health describes a revised approach to the assessment of the health impact related to exposure to fine particulate matter in the GAINS model.  While the current GAINS assessment is based on all-cause mortality, the new approach employs cause‐specific concentration‐response relationships for lung cancer, cardio‐vascular and respiratory diseases for European countries.

Download report ...

 
European Nitrogen Assessment PDF Print E-mail

EU_Nitrogen_AssessmentNitrogen pollution costs the EU between €70-€320 billion annually. This is a key finding of a new study on the impacts of N, which is essential for food production, but contributes to climate change and biodiversity loss. The report, involving IIASA’s Wilfried Winiwarter and Zbigniew Klimont, provides guidance to the EU on how to reduce N pollution and protect human health and the environment.

Further information is available in this summary, from an article in Nature, and in the video produced for the launch of the assessment.

 
CIAM Report 1/2011 PDF Print E-mail

A background report for the 48th meeting of the Working Group on Strategies and Review of the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution has been prepared by IIASA to inform negotiations on the revision of the Gothenburg Protocol about the scope for further environmental improvements. The report presents a series of emission control scenarios that illustrate options for cost‐effective improvements of air quality in Europe.

Download report ... (This report is an updated version - v2.1 31st March 2011 - of the draft paper that has been presented to the 39th Meeting of the Task Force on Integrated Assessment Modelling). The report is also available in a Russian version (thanks to IVL, Sweden).

Data sheets with details of country-specific measures are available.

 
EC4MACS Interim Assessment PDF Print E-mail

The  EC4MACS Interim Assessment report is now available.

The report was produced under the EC4MACS (European Consortium for the Modelling of Air pollution and Climate Strategies) project with the contribution of the LIFE financial instrument of the European Community.

 
Emissions of air pollutants implied by global long-term energy scenarios PDF Print E-mail

A new report explores emission projections for air pollutants for global long-term energy scenarios. By linking the GAINS model with IIASA's MESSAGE energy model, the analysis demonstrates the importance of future air quality legislation that is assumed for the long-run. Declines of emissions of air pollutants, as suggested by earlier global long-term energy scenarios, will only occur if current emission control legislation is further tightened as a consequence of dedicated policy interventions. Download report

 

 
Country pledges assessed in new emissions gap report PDF Print E-mail
unep_emissions_gap_reportA new report coordinated by UNEP and authored by leading scientists, including Contributing Author Fabian Wagner, assesses the emission reduction pledges agreed to by countries as part of the Copenhagen Accord. The study highlights worst and best case scenarios while estimating the emissions gaps under various scenarios that must be bridged to limit global temperature rise to 2°C or 1.5°C in the long term.
 
Report of the TFIAM/EC4MACS Workshop on Uncertainty Treatment in Integrated Assessment Modelling PDF Print E-mail

uncertaintyUncertainty analysis should not be placed at the end of the assessment process, but should form an integral part of the workplan for modelling and policy development. This is one of the main conclusions of the Workshop on Uncertainty Treatment in Integrated Assessment Modelling held at IIASA on Nov 3-4, 2010  is now available for download.

 
CIAM Report 1/2010: Scope for further environmental improvements in 2020 beyond the baseline projections PDF Print E-mail
unece-logoA background paper prepared by IIASA for the 47th Session of the Working Group on Strategies and Review of the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution explores the scope for further environmental improvements for the revision of the Gothenburg Protocol and how they could be harnessed in a cost-effective way. Download paper ...
 
Curbing emissions of short-lived pollutants PDF Print E-mail
carsIIASA's Zbigniew Klimont is among an international team of researchers which argues in a Nature Geoscience commentary that cutting emissions of short-lived pollutants such as methane and black carbon would not only reduce warming in the next few decades, but also help to determine how sensitive the planet's climate is and thereby improve projections of future climate change. More. Posted August 2nd, 2010.
 
NEC Report #7 released PDF Print E-mail

NEC report #7 analyzes efforts that would be required to achieve the environmental targets of the EU Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution for the latest energy projections taking into account recent air pollution control legislation:NEC Scenario Analysis Report #7. Baseline Emission Projections and Further Cost-effective Reductions of Air Pollution Impacts in Europe - A 2010 Perspective (August 2010). Download report

 
Travel, trade and global warming PDF Print E-mail
airplaneDriving alone in a car increases global temperatures in the long run more than making the same journey by air according to a new study by IIASA’s Jens Borken-Kleefeld and research partners in Norway. However, in the short run travelling by air has a larger adverse climate impact because airplanes strongly affect short-lived warming processes at high altitudes argues the study published in Environmental Science and Technology.Posted August 4th, 2010. More ...
 
UN Environment Program Black Carbon Assessment PDF Print E-mail
smokestacksIIASA and UNEP hosted the final authors workshop of the UNEP Black Carbon (BC) Assessment at IIASA (27-30 Sept). Senior policy advisors and research leaders from 12 countries advanced the study, which uses the IIASA GAINS model to identify options to reduce emissions of BC and ozone precursors, such as methane. BC contributes to regional warming and is a significant health threat. The final report will be published in Feb 2011. Published Oct. 6, 2010.
 
Policy report on cost-effective control strategies for air pollution in India PDF Print E-mail
gains-asia-chinaThe GAINS-Asia team has completed a report presenting an analysis of cost-effective air pollution control strategies for India. The report points out that a targeted approach developed with the GAINS-Asia model can reduce air pollution control costs by up to 80 percent compared to a conventional across-the-board application of advanced emission control technologies. Well-designed air pollution control strategies can reduce costs further, and also reduce greenhouse gas emissions at the same time.
 
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